One of the blasts yesterday was on the boulder at the entrance to the channel, visible on the left of the image above. This image shows the crews drilling the blast holes:
Clearly this boulder is not the main issue in terms of the flow, but it may be that they are using this one, which is accessible, as a test. Access to the other side of the channel is difficult, so the suggestion is that water cannon will be used to erode the softer material. It will be interesting to see what they do today in terms of blasts.
Meanwhile the lake level rose by between 8 and 10 inches (20-25 cm) yesterday, suggesting that inflow has increased again.
Yes David its really interesting step by Pakistan Army, i think they should have done it before but to what extent they are going to blast this does matter. hope they will do it gradually.
ReplyDelete"Boulder" looks as big as a boxcar. IT will take a while but with enough drill bits, etc they will get by it. But this is the one you can see. The hydraulic at the channel suggests the problem is below water.
ReplyDeleteNot much time left before the inflow increases from 6-9 cmsec and the main overtopping of the approach channel begins.
Tony M
The before blast picture has men in orange with yellow hardhats, not exactly military colors. Bet that they are quarrymen. Or geologists.
ReplyDeleteThe process of blasting has begun, but doing this way, it hardly can result in something to increase flow of water. It should be done in more realistic way , as the people of Hunz are suffering. They are away from their houses. They are away from education facilities. Their agriculture has failed and other facilities are destroyed and still under water.
ReplyDeleteWell, if the blasting out at the point is all they are doing, then it looks to me like they are hurting the process.
ReplyDeleteIt would appear that they took a chunk of boulder that was out of the channel (up on the bank) and blasted it into the channel, essentially filling it in and increasing the resistance to flow at that point.
Clearly the flow rate is low out at the point, so whatever they blasted off the bank is now right there in the channel. Indeed, the turbulence there appears to have increased, as one would expect if you plopped a boulder in the water right there.
Seems they are doing something with the bolder at the mouth of the channel but uptill today it seems only a guesture like work to avoid more protests from the affected people.One can only believe if it results in increasing the outflow other than the increasing inflow.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Javed. Saddle is the Issue.
ReplyDeleteWe must reclaim the valley.
I had posted a suggestion on 11th of June for using Water Cannons to wash away the Debris in order to widen the spillway.Boulders of this size must be firmly lodged as deep in the soil as they are visible, if the soil surrounding them is washed away, they will loose hold of the soil in which they are firmly embedded and the pressere of water may wash them aside.In case water jets are used they will not let debris to accumulate in the water channel and even if there is a land slide, it may be washed away.These cannons will be easier to deploy and operate from the track adjacent to the Spillway and much more safer and effective than the explosive option.
ReplyDeleteI had also suggested this to Brig Sajid Naeem of NDMA on his e mail address but got no response from him.
It is very heartening to see Dr. David Petley also suggesting use of the water cannons.
I hope and pray this lake is drained safely and well in time before the summer peak flow makes things run out of control.
Colonel ( Retd) Kaiser Hameed Khan
I suggest we nuke it.
ReplyDeletejavid..
ReplyDeletegreat idea..we must generate electricity and plant wheat crop / mango trees on the saddle and develop that as the new tourist hot spot.. income from all the sources..
Dee jay ... wah bhai wah..
ReplyDeletedave this is a man made disaster though it looks like a natural one.
my sympathies for the locals...javid how abt organising a 20-20 on the saddle??
From the study posted regarding flow dates, we're in the vicinity of 50% peak flow. Thus the Hunza's flow will increase by approximately 100% over the next month, or so.
ReplyDeleteDave,
ReplyDeletePlease comment in retrospect if the decision to build a spillway of this size was right in the first place? I am asking this question in view of the projections in which peak flows increasing by 100% ( double of what they are now)are yet to come. Breaking of the Dam is likely to be even more catastrophic in that case.
I think there should be a certain degree of realism about the ability to construct a spillway of significant proportions through the dam in the time available. Making a significant impact on the depth of the spillway (i.e. say 10m deeper) would have involved vastly more equipment since the excavation width at the top would have needed to have been correspondingly greater. Also the length of the spillway would also have needed to be increased considerably. Therefore doubling the depth of the spillway could conceivably have required the removal of 10 times the amount of material. So instead of 4 excavators, perhaps 40 would have been required, which simply could not have been operated in such a confined area. Also the time available would have been reduced by the earlier overtopping.
ReplyDeleteA doubling of the outflow through the existing spillway is unlikely to result in a raising of the water level in the lake by more than 1m and probably by not more than 0.5m. For those people whose houses would be flooded by this water level rise, this is obviously devastating, but widening (rather than deepening) the channel to prevent the water level rising in the lake seems nigh on impossible to carry out safely.
ReplyDeleteI'm dying for some updated pictures!!! Will any of you currently in the area please go and shoot some and post them pleasssssssssseeee!
ReplyDelete