Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The Copenhagen Diagnosis

As a rule on this blog I try not to drift too far off-topic. Occasionally I will track a hurricane or a typhoon if there is the potential for them to trigger lots of slides. I never stray into the political domain on this blog - and I hope that I never will.

So, today for the probably the first time, I am going to drift into a different field. I am going to remain strictly within the science, but I am going to highlight a key document that is now available. Ahead of the Copenhagen climate discussions a group of key climatologists have released "The Copenhagen Diagnosis", which is an update to the most recent IPCC report on climate change.

Now, over the last week or so there has been some extraordinary garbage on both the internet and in the mainstream media in relation to the stolen emails and files from the University of East Anglia. I am appalled at the way in which comments within those emails have been manipulated and misrepresented, even by some who should know better, to undermine climate science. Meanwhile the physics of the atmosphere continues as before, and our knowledge of how it is behaving is unchanged, and the picture is not a good one. The strength of the Climate Diagnosis report is the fact that it relies upon good quality observational data. And lets be clear about what the data show:
  • Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing;
  • The climate is continuing to warm (and despite the guff that the denialists spout, tenperatures have increased over the last decade);
  • Sea level is rising at the top end of the previous estimates;
  • Arctice sea ice decline has accelerated
So why have I drifted into featuring climate science on this blog? Well, for two reasons. First, the denialists continue to peddle the myth that there is no consensus. This is not my experience, and so I think it is time for the silent majority of environmental scientists to stand up and be counted. Second, the CRU / Hadley Centre email hack was clearly designed to derail the science of climate ahead of Copenhagen. This is an outrageous attack on science and scientists that we should all oppose.

The document can be downloaded here. Please read it and try to understand what it is saying. This is so very, very important.

2 comments:

  1. Dave,
    I enjoy your blog. You fail to appreciate that climate change stopped being about the science some time ago. Else we would see peer reviewed papers such as the one below geting wider coverage. The IPCC is a polical organisation and the authors of this report are pushing a polical agenda. Here's just one article from Geology that was not included in this study. There are many more.

    In a striking finding that raises new questions about carbon dioxide’s (CO2) impact on marine life, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) scientists report that some shell-building creatures—such as crabs, shrimp and lobsters—unexpectedly build more shell when exposed to ocean acidification caused by elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

    http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&tid=282&cid=63809&ct=162

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  2. Your blog is amusing. I read some of those emails and I haven’t seen how they have been misrepresented at all in the media. Maybe you could elaborate. It’s a shame that science has now become politicized. Human caused climate change is really about money and power. It’s that simple. NASA alone has received an extraordinary amount of money to study this. What climate scientist wouldn't want all that grant money to inflate their smarter than everyone else egos. After all, scientists have the same human failings that the rest of have namely fame and fortune. Plus, if politicians and journalist cheat misrepresent and lie, why can't a scientist?

    I'm a geologist and work for a geotechnical firm in southern California with a master of science in geological sciences and I believe the climate is changing. It always has and always will. In fact, it should be since we live on a dynamic planet. As you know, the last ice age occurred a mere 20,000 years ago a blink of eye from a geologic time perspective. In other words, the Earth should be warming up.

    Once something becomes political, I become cynical therefore, I just don’t believe in human caused climate warming. Take the money and power grab out of the equation and I would probably be on the anthropogenic climate change bandwagon. You must know that numerous individuals are going to get extremely rich off these climate change laws. By the way, out of all the science courses, I took; I was never instructed that a consensus was necessary to prove a theory as being true as you imply. Where did you learn that?
    Cheers
    Steve

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