The latest NASA image of Attabad

NASA have released another spectacular satellite image of the Attabad dam and lake.  In the article they focus on the upstream end of the lake:

The article states that the water level can be seen to have dropped as the area upstream  of Hussaini is no longer inundated.  Now there is some evidence that the water level has dropped a little - the Pamir Times reports 12 feet (4 metres), although this may well be a downslope distance rather than a vertical fall.  As inflow decreases the water level should decline until the outflow balances this amount.  The Pamir Times article above also alludes to operations on the spillway, though it is unclear as to whether these have actually started.  I think that it is more likely that the apparent drop in the imagery is actually due to sedimentation in the river channel.  This is supported by a close look at Hassaini itself, which shows no signs of a drop in water level.

To me the most interesting aspect of this new image lies in the main part of the lake:

This is a comparison of the two most recent images of the landslide scar, dam and spillway area.  The first was collected on 7th July.  Note that it is partially obscured by dust:

Whilst the second is the most recent image, collected on 23rd August:

The key thing to note is that the spillway has evolved considerably - it has widened and become more sinuous.  There is also some apparent change in the water flow upstream end of the channel, which appears to be more turbulent now.  This could be due to a change in the volume of flow.  Finally, note that there also appears to be a couple of dust clouds in the upper part of the scarp area, suggesting that this is still evolving.

All of this means that system has not yet reached an equilibrium state, and thus remains a threat.  Fortunately though as winter approaches the risk of a rapid collapse is reducing, although unfortunately not to residual levels.

Catching up - recent landslide events

The next few posts will be an attempt to catch up on the things that I missed whilst on vacation in Switzerland last week.  Thanks to the many people who have tipped me off about landslide events.  I will cover Pakistan in another post.


1. A large flow in Austria
Thanks to Martin Springer for highlighting this one.  On Saturday 21st August a severe storm triggered a 100,000 cubic metre flow in the Karwendel Nature Reserve.  Fortunately no-one was killed, but a dozen cars are trapped in a car park.  It will take two months to clear the debris.  There is a short video of the deposit and further details about the landslide (in German) here.

Read more by clicking below:



2. The power of a mudflow illustrated by an articulated truck in California
Thanks to Lisa Denke for this one.  A large storm in eastern California on Thursday last week triggered a mudflow in the Owens Valley in eastern California.  An articulated truck (known as a tractor trailer in the US) was caught in the path.  There is a short but useful video of the event in this news report:



3.An excavator in Gilgit-Baltistan
Accompanying the video above is an extraordinary image of the aftermath of the rains in Pakistan, courtesy of the Pamir Times:

I am reminded of the old "how does the driver of a snowplough get to work?" line.


4. Devastating landslides in Turkey
Also on Thursday last week, heavy rainfall triggered landslides in the town of Gundogdu, in Rize Province in Turkey, killing 12 people.  The image below is taken from this news report:

5. The typhoon season has now got started
Finally, the very slow start to the Pacific typhoon season has now come to an end, with a series of storms developing at the moment.  The three storms currently active all have the potential to cause landslides (image from Tropical Storm Risk):

Lionrock and Namthuen could both bring very heavy rainfall to southern China as they track inland over the next couple of days.  Meanwhile, the forecast track of Typhoon Kompasu suggests that this very intense typhoon could bring substantial amounts of rainfall to the Korean peninsular.  North Korean in particular is very vulnerable to the effects of heavy rainfall due to the extensive deforestation endemic in that country.  The potential impacts of this storm are serious, although note that there is considerable uncertainty in track forecasts.

Amazing new rockfall video from Yosemite

Thanks to Greg Stock for bringing this one to my attention.  Yosemite National Park have produced a video providing information for visitors about the hazards associated with rockfalls.  It includes an extraordinary piece of footage - captured by a visitor to the park - of a rockfall detaching from the cliff, fragmenting on impact on the the slope, and then travelling down the talus slope.  The video of the detachment event is fantastic - I have never seen anything as good.  However, the rest of the video is great as well, and will be very valuable to those trying to provide improved awareness rockfalls in many environments.  The video should be viewable below (click on read more to see the rest of the post):






Or you can view it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0YhlqP1BgE

Hunza debris flow video

You probably guessed that I am on holiday this week (normal service will be resumed at the weekend), but I thought I'd quickly post this new debris flow video from Hunza in Pakistan. The interesting but starts at about 1 minute 15 seconds:

New pictures of Attabad

Many thanks to David Butz, who is a Professor of Human Geography at Brock University in Canada, for sending to me a set of photographs of the situation at Attabad.  David was there about eleven days ago, when the boat service was still running (it has now ceased due to a lack of fuel).  David has kindly allowed me to post some pictures here - note however that he retains ownership and copyright of them.

The dam from from downstream (click on "read more" to get the remainder of the post):

A close up of the downstream part of the spillway.  Note the very large boulder:

The upper part of the spillway, the point at which the flow rate increases:

The landslide mass from the upstream side:

The towering landscape and the heavily overloaded boats that ply the lake:

Many of the displaced people are still located in very hazardous locations:

And to finish, the best image that I have seen to date that is able to show the size of the landslide.  Remember that the lake is 120 metres deep:

Pakistan flood update: the Kirthar Canal

The floods in Pakistan continue to extend to new areas, increasing the magnitude of the impact on a daily basis.  The PakMet hydrographs continue to show increasing flow levels.  At Guddu the discharge is still rising, and is now close to the peak level reached in the first flood wave (click on "read more" to reveal the rest of this post):

Meanwhile, as expected serious problems are developing in the area of (but so far not on) the Guddu Barrage, where the discharge is also increasing:

It appears that the second flood wave has not really reached Sukkur as yet.  However, Dawn this morning reports that: "...residents of Qubo Saeed Khan town and over 100 villages in Qambar-Shahdadkot district were asked to leave their homes on Monday after a powerful current of floodwaters gushing from Garhi Khairo and overtopping the Khirthar canal smashed five gates of the Garang regulator and washed away the entire structure." 


The importance of Sukkur Barrage and the canal network that extends from it is described in this old Pakistan Observer article "Federal Minister for Labour and Manpowewr Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah has said that Sukkur Barrage is the lifeline for Sindh’s agricultural economy".  Agriculture in this area is heavily dependent upon the water delivered by this canal network; damage to these structures will represent a major problem in the future.  Note also that it is likely that the water will have carried subtantial volumes of silt, which may be deposited in the canal network.  This may need to be removed once the floods subside.  Meanwhile, the water will have destroyed a substantial part of the cotton crop, which should be harvested next month, which in turn will damage the textile industry.  Farmers would normally plant winter wheat in the autumn; the viability of this crop must also be in doubt.
 
Upstream, the impact of the floods and landslides in the mountains is being well-described by the Pamir Times.  The Pakistan High Commissioner in London has stated that rehabilitation will require about $15 billion of investment and a "Marshall Plan" style of approach.  It is interesting to see the UK Deputy Prime Minister describing the international response to the floods as "lamentable".  To date the UK has committed £31 million to the Pakistan flood disaster, which to be fair is reportedly a quarter of all of the assistance pledged.  However, in comparison with the cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars (£20 billion over the last ten years for the UK alone), this amount is tiny.  Investing in aid to Pakistan, and being seen to be a force for good in a troubled area, would seem to be a good strategy.  Building on the Marshall Plan analogy, isn't it time for a Berlin Airlift style aid effort?

Where on Google Earth 211 (updated with result)

There is a long running competition in the Geoblogosphere called "Where on Google Earth" (WOGE), which essentially challenges readers to identify locations pictured on Google Earth imagery.   The last was WOGE (number 210), hosted by Meta-Geologist; I was the lucky winner.  The winner gains the right to choose and host the next one, so here it is:

The rules of Where on Google Earth are that to win you must post in a comment the location of the image (lat, long), together with a brief description of the reason for its geological interest. The prize is the right to produce and host the next one.  You will be unsurprised to hear that the site in question contains a landslide - in this case very a large one.

RESULT: Both Christoph and Jorge were correct in the location.  There is indeed an ancient, cubic kilometre scale rock avalancke deposit in the valley, and upstream there are extensive lake deposits.  On the basis of this, I declare Jorge the winner, who now gets the right to set the next one.

Dave

The rapidly developing flood crisis in Pakistan: 16th August 2010

The flood crisis in Pakistan continues to develop with a surprising pace.  In an earlier post I suggested that this event might be Pakistan's equivalent of Hurricane Katrina (i.e. a wake-up call for effective disaster management), but now it is starting to look more like the equivalent of the Haiti Earthquake - i.e. an event that is so catastrophic that the coping capacity of the state is exceeded.  There is clearly now a need for a huge international response effort.

The PakMet FFD hydrograph data continue to plot the progress or otherwise of the flood waves downstream.  Most of the the first flood wave continues to be trapped between Guddu and Kotri.  The Kotri hydrograph continues to show alarmingly low discharge values (click read more below to see the remainder of this post):

 Thus, the majority of the water from the first wave is still in the landscape as the second wave approaches.  At Guddu the discharge is rising again:

Note that it is still substantially above the "exceptionally high" level.  The real concern however must lie in the area around Sukkur, where the water level has hardly fallen from the first event, and is now just starting to rise with the second:

Unfortunately, further heavy rainfall is occurring both in the upstream areas and those downstream as well.  The FFD warnings are now expressing quiet concerns about the barrage at Sukkur.  The politicians are a little more frank about the situation, according to this report in Dawn:

"The Sindh irrigation minister, Jam Saifullah Dharejo, said the dam in Sukkur faced a major test of its strength as flood waters coursed down the Indus River into Pakistan's highly populated agricultural heartland.  ''The coming four to five days are still crucial,'' he said.

Take a look at the Pakistan media reports here, here and here to get an idea of just how bad things are in Sindh now.  The prospect of 200,000 people being rendered homeless by a single part of this flood in a single day is quite extraordinary.

Meanwhile, life in the mountain areas to the north is extraordinarily difficult, with areas devastated by the 2005 earthquake being hit by fresh landslides overnight.  The Express Tribune has a short article on life in Gilgit, which remains effectively isolated from the outside world.  The headline is: "Gilgit travels back in time as flood cripples infrastructure", which given that electricity, food, water and medical facilities are all in a state of crisis, is no exaggeration. 

Pakistan flood update - 15th August 2010

The second flood wave is now starting to affect the most devastated areas of Sindh.  The PakMet FFD hydrograph for Guddu has started to show an increase in discharge once again:

Note that the flood level has been above the exceptionally high (danger) level for ten days now.  Downstream at Sukkur the water level continues to fall very slowly, again remaining well above the danger level:

Expect this to start to rise once again in the next few days. Meanwhile, the final downstream station at Kotri the flood level remains very surprisingly low:

Assuming that these values are correct this must mean that a vast volume of water is being stored in the landscape between Sukkur and Kotri.  The flood is certainly spreading across the plains, as this report on new flooding in Jaffarabad demonstrates.  This NASA MODIS satellite image shows the area around Sukkur.  Notice how the area flooded changes at Sukkur, presumably because of the restriction in the flow by bridges and barrages:

There is a first class UNOSAT flood extent map here.   It demonstrates the areas in which the flood is still spreading - a close look is quite horrifying actually - the scale of the disaster is so huge that the media are understandably struggling to provide an adequate picture of the extent.

To multiply the problems the new flood wave travelling down the river.  This must be a very worrying situation once the second flood reaches Sukkur.  Although smaller than the first wave, the cumulative effects and the existing damage to levees spells a potentially very difficult situation.

Meanwhile, the focus of the media coverage is now on the downstream areas.  With 20 million people now directly affected by the floods, this is unsurprising.  However, the situation upstream also remains critical.  The Pamir Times has a good report on the situation in Gilgit-Baltistan, which is effectively cut off downstream by the loss of the Karokoram Highway and upstream by the Attabad landslide dam:

"The devastating landslides and flash floods that resulted in death of over 120 people in different parts of Gilgit – Baltistan have also blocked supply routes increasing misery and sufferings of hundreds of thousands more.

Blockage of the Karakuram Highway since last week of July has resulted in depletion of POL products, including petrol, diesel and Kerosene oil in the entire regions.  Hospitals have been closed and hotels are shutting down due to absence of electricity.  Banks have also closed down temporarily because of lack of electricity.Supply of electricity to Gilgit has been cut off for more than one week due to destruction of power houses and transmission lines. Transportation system has also collapsed due to closure of fuel stations that relied entirely on supplies from down country through the Karakuram Highway.  In Gojal valley the boats have stopped ferrying passengers and goods because of depletion of fuel reserves. The local people are cut off from other parts of the region without proper medical facilities and supplies.  Ghizar, Astore, Diamir and the two districts of Baltistan are also facing similar situations. Hundreds of displaced families in different parts of the region have still not been reached by the government and relief agencies. One such example is of the displaced people of Gaise village in Diamir where the food reserves have reportedly finished and starvation is setting in. Local people have demanded of the government to intensify its efforts in Gilgit – Baltistan to end miseries of the suffering people.  Deaths due to starvation and malnutrition seem to be a sad possibility in some far flung parts of remote affected districts of Gilgit – Baltistan."

Jeff Master's remarkable blog has an article on the causes of the Pakistan floods.  It remains my plan to follow this up in the next few days, if I can find the time given everything that is going on.

An extraordinary year for landslides in China

This morning has brought further reports of heavy rain and consequent landslides in China, with more downpours forecast for the next few days.  Meanwhile the recovery operations for the Shouqu landslide continue, marked by a national day of mourning for the victims.  Note that the cost of the landslide at Shouqu is now reported to be 1239 people, with 505 still missing. 

The landslides in China this year are interesting for both their frequency and their intensity.  On average China has the largest number of fatal landslides of any country in the world, but this year has been particularly serious.  Based upon the database of fatal landslides that I have been maintaining for the last 8 years, the graph below shows the cumulative recorded number of non-seismic landslides that resulted in fatalities for the last five years in China.  The x-axis is the day number in the year (i.e. 1st January = 1; 31st December = 365).

Even before the Shouqu landslide disaster the number of fatality inducing landslides this year was running far above the normal level for the previous four years, and already the total has exceeded the annual totals of all the previous years.  This is despite a low impact of landfalling typhoons so far this year (this is unlikely to remain the case to year end).

The Beijing Climate Center produces daily maps of global precipitation anomaly for the last thirty days.  This is the latest version covering the last 30 days:

 

The most obvious aspects of these maps is actually the extraordinary drought in western Russia, but note also
that the high level of rainfall in northern Pakistan and in Central Europe appears.  Much of China shows rainfall well above the norm.

Update on China and Pakistan - 13th August 2010

1. The Gansu landslide in China
The rescue operations in Gansu have now clearly transitioned into a recovery and rehabilitation phase, greatly hampered by continuing very heavy rainfall in the area.  Landslides are continuing to occur in the area, with resultant casualties.

Tom Dijkstra of Loughborough University visited the site as part of a trip to look at collaborative landslide research in the area back in November.  He has kindly sent two images of the town to me and has agreed that I can put them online.  This image shows the area affected by the landslide from the other side of the river.  The steep, deforested mountains in the background are clearly the source of the flow:

The second image shows the catchment source of the flow:

It is worth comparing the above image with this AP picture that I posted a few days ago of the site after the flow:

The reasons for the very high loss of life, now estimated to be 1,144 people, with a further 600 still missing, are clear given the density of buildings in the affected area.

2. Pakistan
The two flood waves in Pakistan continue to cause extreme levels of suffering.  According to the FFD hydrographs the water level at Sukkur is now falling slowly after the passage of the first flood wave:

What has been particularly interesting though is that the flood level is not really increasing substantially at Kotri, the large gauging station downstream:

This presumably means one of two things.  First, it could be that the water is finding another route - i.e. that it is bypassing the gauging station.  Alternatively, the water is in effect trapped between the two sites, which might explain the very slow falling limb of the hydrograph.  The Google Earth satellite image below shows Kotri:

It is possible that the water has flooded the adjacent land, but the news reports indicate that this is not the case, with the suggestion that the bridges downstream of Sukkur are slowing the flow down.  This is dangerous in the context of the second flood wave, which at the moment remains smaller than the first.  This is the hydrograph for Taunsa, which is just below the "Extremely High" flood level:

At Guddu the discharge is still falling, but only very slowly.  Indeed the discharge remains well above the "Exceptionally High" level:

The danger must be that the second flood wave starts to catch up with, and build upon, the stalled first wave.  This would create the potential for an extremely damaging second phase of floods.  It took six days for the first wave to pass from Taunsa to Guddu, and a further day to Sukkur.  The hope must be that the water level starts to fall quickly at these two sites before the second wave arrives.

Unfortunately, it is clear that this slow motion disaster has several more weeks to go, even if there is no further heavy rain.

Update on the disasters in China and Pakistan: 11th August 2010

Apologies for the tardiness of this update - it has been a busy day!  First a heads-up, I will write a post to go on the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience blog on these disasters in the context of climate change in the next couple of days.  I will signpost the piece here when it is ready.

1. Pakistan
The sheer magnitude of the disaster in Pakistan is difficult to comprehend.  Unfortunately the true horror of this event is probably remaining hidden; the real impact will come when the water levels in the south subside to leave polluted water wells, destroyed homes and wrecked crops.  The legacy of this disaster will be long-lasting, and will have a profound impact on Pakistan and elsewhere.

Starting in the north, heavy rain continues to wreak havoc, and the Pamir Times appears to be the only outlet from which a really good idea of the true impact can be gained.  In Gilgit-Baltistan the population is isolated by the blockage of the Hunza river to the north, preventing supplies from China, and the loss of bridges and the road to the south, leaving the population in dire need.  Electricity, water, food and medicine are in short supply.  Meanwhile, the Pamir Times is also reporting a disaster at Diamir, caused by the failure of another landslide dam.  They report at least 50 fatalities and 300 houses washed away.  Assuming that the report is correct, expect this to make the news tomorrow as word seeps out.  One hopes that the toll does not increase further, but I am fearful that this is likely.

To the south, the media has cottoned onto the fact that there is a second wave heading down the Indus now, an issue that I have been highlighting since the weekend. Dawn.com quotes the meteorological service in warning of floods in the northern regions of the Pakistan plains.  This second wave is now generating a substantial flood at Chashma:

Fortunately it is not as large as the first wave, but is still only just below the "extremely high" category.  In the context of already damaged infrastructure, the potential for further destruction is clear.

Downstream at Guddu the hydrograph is falling very slowly, but remains far above the extremely high flood level:

Whilst at Sukkur the hydrograph remains saturated, meaning that the true level is hard to judge:

Unfortunately the first flood still has some way to go before discharging to the sea.  The Pakistan Flood Forecasting division must be praised for the brevity of their weather forecasts.  Tomorrow's forecast says:

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 48-HOURS: No Change.

Several people have asked about a good NGO to whom donations could be made.  In this blog I have worked extensively with Focus Humanitarian Assistance, who specialise in providing help to people's affected by disasters, and who did undeniably wonderful work in Pakistan in the aftermath of the Attabad crisis.  As part of the Aga Khan Development Network I believe that they are a safe and honorable NGO, and they remain my preferred partner for work in Pakistan.

2. China
Once again the death toll from the Zhouqu landslide in Gansu has jumped, with Xinhua reporting a total of 1,117 fatalities and a further 627 people still missing.  The struggle to breach the partial barrier formed by the landslide across the barrier is intense, with the use of explosives to try to break the blockage.  Concern is rising in the light of continued poor weather in the area, with thunderstorms occurring today and heavy rains forecast for the next two days.  Meanwhile, there is a fascinating level of honesty in the Chinese media about the likely causes of the landslide.  For example, this article explores the contributing factors, whilst in this one a minister reflects upon both climatic extremes and illegal construction.  The level of openness is surprising, but very welcome.

The press of course continue to describe the anguish of the families of the victims, especially as the "golden" 72 hour period is now passed.  Presumably a decision will be needed soon to terminate the rescue operation and to regrade and entomb the debris.  I suspect that it is inevitable that many of the victims will not be recovered, with the site being preserved as a memorial to them.

Finally, Digital Globe have released a very high resolution satellite image of the site of the landslides, which is available here:

Very useful, but unfortunately, it still does not provide an insight into the source area of the slide - has anyone seen an image of this zone as yet?

More tomorrow.

Update: Dramatic increase in the loss of life in the Gansu landslide

Xinhua has this morning dramatically increased estimated loss of life in the landslide at Zhouqu in Gansu Province, China.  The latest toll is 702 known fatalities and a further 1,042 people missing.

Updates for Pakistan, China and India flood and landslide crises, 10th August

As yesterday, this is a brief review of the state of play with the three substantial landslide and flood crises in Asia.

1. Pakistan
The flood wave continues to work its way down the Indus, and is now in the Province of Sindh.   As forecast, heavy rainfall exacerbated the situation yesterday, with totals of over 100 mm in some areas of the province. Kyber-Pakhtunkhwa also saw falls of 30 mm or more in some areas.  Whilst not enough to cause the sort of devastation that we have seen of late, this is sufficient to keep river levels topped up.

 Working our way down the Indus, the second flood at Besham has now peaked and the hydrograph is showing a rapid decline. 

The peak flow in this econd flood was lower than in the first , but was still substantial.  This water will of course have to work its way down the Indus over the next ten days.  It will be interesting to see how this flood looks when it reaches Taunsa.

Moving down to Guddu, the peak discharge appears finally to have passed, meaning that water levels will be slowly falling.  Note however that if the flow behaviour at Taunsa is a guide, the rate at which the water levels fall will be quite slow, meaning that the people have several more days before they will be able to start rebuilding their lives.  Note also that the flood level is still above the exceptionally high level.  The flat peak component of the flood record causes me to reiterate my suggestion yesterday that the hydrograph shown below has not accurately captured the peak flow:

Going south again, and the main concern is now at Sukkur, where the hydrograph appears to be suffering the same problems of saturation at the peak:

Some media reports have suggested that the peak flow here is actually 1.2 million cubic feet per second.  The media are also reporting concerns about the safety of the Sukkur barrage, with several reports suggesting that deliberate breaches of levees are being considered to try to reduce the peak flow.  It seems that a similar exercise was undertaken upstream at Ghouspur, with the inevitable destruction that followed.  However, it is important to understand that these barrages provide irrigation for vast areas of productive agricultural land that is vital for the sustenance of the population of Pakistan.  Deciding on how to protect them is not an easy task.

However, as at Attabad the apparently poor communications strategy of the authorities is unfortunate.  Whilst putting the hydrographs online is a good step, it would be sensible to accompany this with a decent explanation of what is happening, where the threats lie, and the action that might be needed to mitigate them.  Whilst this would not prevent the destruction, at least people might understand why particular courses of action are being followed.

Finally, for northern Pakistan the Pamir Times has provided two updates in the last 24 hours on the Attabad situation.  Most importantly, the water level is now falling, having apparently risen by 6 feet (about 1.8 metres) at the peak of the floods, which caused further widespread destruction. Meanwhile, they continue to note that other landslides have caused severe hardship, and that the Hunza was blocked at Rahimabad to the north of Gilgit.  As far as I can tell Rahimabad is in the valley shown in the Google Earth image below:

Meanwhile, the Pamir Times has also provided some new images of the state of the Attabad barrier itself:

These appear to indicate little change in the state of the dam over the last couple of weeks.  Operations to lower the spillway level have yet to start, but it is heartening to see in some of the images that a monitoring team appears to still be on the site.

2. China
Rescue operations continue at the Zhouqu landslide site, where the number of known fatalities is now 337.  The reported number of missing people is 1,148.  There can be little chance of recovering many further survivors, although one victim was recovered alive today.  The state media are reporting some tales of real anguish in the aftermath of the disaster, exacerbated of course by the "one child" policy in China.  The government is attributing the disaster to the normal villains - poor geological conditions, the recent drought, the heavy rainfall, and the aftermath of the 2008 earthquake.  This is all likely to be true to at least some degree, but there may be other factors as well, most notably deforestation and the legacy of mining activities.  The internet age has spawned a wave of amateur investigative journalism in China.  This All Voices page reviews recent postings of Chinese documents about the landslide hazard in Zhouqu.  Whilst I am naturally sceptical of some of this material, it does appear that the risks to communities posed by landslides in these mountains is well-documented.  In particular, this newspaper article, from 2008, identifies that the slope problems at Zhouqu are sufficiently serious that they have been the location of various studies by Japanese landslide scientists.  However, to be fair to the government, the range of landslide problems in the aftermath of the 2008 earthquake is so serious that prioritising and finding resource to mitigate appropriately is impossible.  Expect more landslide disasters in central China in the coming years.

Two images have appeared in the last 24 hours that demonstrate the magnitude of this slide.  This AP image shows the landslide from the opposite bank:

I would really like to see the source of this huge debris flow - has anyone seen an aerial image of the upper reaches of the track as yet?

And this AP image illustrates the likely velocity of the movement, given away by the mud deposit on, and indeed in, the upper part of the building:

Finally, unfortunately tropical storm Dianmu is moving northwards off the east coast of China.  Although it is unlikely to landfall in China itself, expect heavy rainfall across eastern and central China.  Given the intensity and magnitude of the recent rainfall, this is potentially deeply problematic.

3. The Ladakh debris flows in India
The forgotten disaster amongst everything else that is going on is the Ladakh debris flows that occurred on Friday.  To date the number of known victims is reported to be 165 people, with a further 500 thought to be missing (with very little chance of survival now).  However, Save the Children is reported to believe that the true toll is likely to be in excess of 1,000 because several affected villages have yet to be accessed.  Localised heavy rainfall continues in the area, disrupting relief operations and causing further damage.

One of the most seriously affected towns was Choglamsar.  This is the settlement in the foreground of the perspective Google Earth image below - the presence of the huge debris fan in the background is a clear sign of the processes that have allows the formation of the comparatively flat areas upon which the town is built:

Protecting the town against repeats of this event is not going to be an easy task, but debris flows must be expected on a fan such as this.

I will try to provide further updates tomorrow morning, or sooner if events require.

Updates on landslides and floods in Pakistan, China and India

It is rather difficult to keep up with all the landslides occurring in Asia at present, so for now I'll provide a brief review of the current situation across the three major areas affected:

1. Pakistan
The situation in Pakistan becomes increasingly desperate.  Further heavy rainfall in the mountains in the northwest has meant increased landslide and flood occurrence, and a huge reduction in the aid effort.  The FFD hydrographs in the mountain areas are steadily rising again.  For example, this hydrograph is for Skardu shows that flow is greater now than it was in the heavy rainfall of ten days ago:

Downstream at Besham (close to the mountain front) the discharge is not as high as it was in the first set of floods, but it is rising and the level is undoubtedly high:

The area under the curve is the total volume of water that has been involved in the flood.  This suggests that in terms of overall volume this flood is larger than that of the events last week, even though the peak flow is (so far) lower.

Downstream at Sukkur and Guddu the flow remains exceptionally high.  At Guddu the hydrograph suggests that the peak flow has now been maintained for over 24 hours.  This looks odd - I wonder whether the discharge has exceeded the capacity of the measurement system. 

However, according to the FFD a larger discharge has been measured at Guddu before - in 1986 a discharge of 1,200,000 cusecs (cubic feet per second) was measured at this point.

At Sukkur the discharge is continuing to rise, and based upon the Guddu hydrograph may have some time to go before the peak is reached.  The maximum recorded flood at this point is 1,170,000 cusecs in 1986.

GEO News is reporting that the city of Muzaffargarh is now being evacuated.  Given that this is a city of 165,000 people, the severity of the situation is clear.

2. China
Xinhua continues to provide full coverage of the desperate attempts to save people trapped by the landslide in Zhouqu, Gansu Province yesterday.   The magnitude of the slide is clear from the story of the survivor rescued this morning - she was recovered from a an apartment that had been inundated by debris.  The rescuers had to break through a wall to reach her - even though her apartment was on the fourth floor of the building.  Meanwhile the landslide dam has been successfully breached, which at least deals with one key issue.

3. India
The debris flow at Ladakh is now known to have killed 132 people, but a further 500 people are reported to be missing.  The level of damage is really very high indeed, as this AP image shows:

A fascinating insight into the process that occurred at Leh is provided by this commentary from geologist Ritesh Arya, who was in the head scar area when the failures developed:

"Speaking to TOI on phone from Leh, Arya, who was sleeping in a house in Choglamsar village when the entire area abruptly began to move, said: "This village is 6km from Leh on a hillock formed by mud itself. I woke up when I felt massive vibrations and found that the whole hill-side was moving." The loose soil had softened further due to torrential rains. "This is a rare geological phenomenon, and though landslides are common, mud creeps like this are unheard of," said Arya, who holds a Guinness Book of World Record for discovering ground water at an altitude of 11,000 ft in Ladakh.

Describing the sheer size of the mudslide, Arya said: "Its dimensions make it so scary: it was about 20meter high and several kilometers wide." All the houses coming in its way appeared to just dissolve into it as it roared on, destroying the Leh bus stand and the BSNL exchange, said Arya. The mudslide is believed to have travelled 6km, bulldozing the Choglamsar village. Arya said most roads have disappeared under the debris. The worst-hit are the heritage buildings and old houses, traditionally made of mud.

"'People were completely caught unawares. Then suddenly, everyone started scrambling as the enormous amount of loose mud and debris was unleashed. Those who survived in the Choglamsar village had to waded through five-ft high mudflow," said Arya. "There are bodies still buried in the debris and I found arms and legs sticking out at several places," he said."

Whilst elements of this are over-hyped (for example this is far from "unprecedented"), the observations are very helpful and interesting.