Catching up - recent landslide events

The next few posts will be an attempt to catch up on the things that I missed whilst on vacation in Switzerland last week.  Thanks to the many people who have tipped me off about landslide events.  I will cover Pakistan in another post.


1. A large flow in Austria
Thanks to Martin Springer for highlighting this one.  On Saturday 21st August a severe storm triggered a 100,000 cubic metre flow in the Karwendel Nature Reserve.  Fortunately no-one was killed, but a dozen cars are trapped in a car park.  It will take two months to clear the debris.  There is a short video of the deposit and further details about the landslide (in German) here.

Read more by clicking below:



2. The power of a mudflow illustrated by an articulated truck in California
Thanks to Lisa Denke for this one.  A large storm in eastern California on Thursday last week triggered a mudflow in the Owens Valley in eastern California.  An articulated truck (known as a tractor trailer in the US) was caught in the path.  There is a short but useful video of the event in this news report:



3.An excavator in Gilgit-Baltistan
Accompanying the video above is an extraordinary image of the aftermath of the rains in Pakistan, courtesy of the Pamir Times:

I am reminded of the old "how does the driver of a snowplough get to work?" line.


4. Devastating landslides in Turkey
Also on Thursday last week, heavy rainfall triggered landslides in the town of Gundogdu, in Rize Province in Turkey, killing 12 people.  The image below is taken from this news report:

5. The typhoon season has now got started
Finally, the very slow start to the Pacific typhoon season has now come to an end, with a series of storms developing at the moment.  The three storms currently active all have the potential to cause landslides (image from Tropical Storm Risk):

Lionrock and Namthuen could both bring very heavy rainfall to southern China as they track inland over the next couple of days.  Meanwhile, the forecast track of Typhoon Kompasu suggests that this very intense typhoon could bring substantial amounts of rainfall to the Korean peninsular.  North Korean in particular is very vulnerable to the effects of heavy rainfall due to the extensive deforestation endemic in that country.  The potential impacts of this storm are serious, although note that there is considerable uncertainty in track forecasts.

Update on the flood wave in Pakistan, plus an update on the monsoon in India and on typhoon activity in the NW Pacific

The true magnitude of the disaster in Pakistan is now becoming clear - this appears to be the country's equivalent of Hurricane Katrina.  It has to be hoped that lessons are learnt both within the country and by the international community in terms of disaster risk reduction there.

In 2007 the World Health Organisation produced a flood potential map for Pakistan, which I reproduce below:

The flood wave is travelling down the Indus River at present, concentrated initially on the most westerly of the three main tributaries shown above.  The latest PakMet hydrographs show that the flood has now peaked at Taunsa and is rising downstream at Guddu.  Unfortunately the graphs are incomplete on the PakMet site (it appears they have a software issue) - I'll try to put this right later once they have corrected the error.  For locations see the Google Earth map I produced yesterday.

The flood routing model suggests that the peak should reach Guddu in about three days from the peak at Taunsa, and then take a further day to get to Sukkur and finally three days or so to reach the sea.  Hopefully there is sufficient warning to relocate people away from the water, but the potential for damage is high. The government (i.e. the NDMA) in Pakistan is once again coming under severe criticism for its response - this letter, written about Taunsa, gives a flavour of the concerns.  Whilst it is easy to criticise NDMA, the core issue probably remains a lack of investment and capacity building in this agency.  This needs to be corrected.  Unfortunately, the assassination of an MP in Karachi yesterday has also led to severe civil unrest in that city, which is only serving to magnify the range of problems facing Pakistan.

Meanwhile the emergency in Northwest Pakistan continues, but the operation is being hampered by further rain.  Reports now suggest that the loss of life is in the order of 1,400, but note that it is not unusual for estimates a few days into an emergency to be too high, with a further 3 million people reported to have been directly affected.  Stories about the event are truly heartbreaking - it is hard to imagine what it must be like to lose your children, house, belongings and livelihood to a single event.  The impact of the flood in mountain communities is well illustrated by this image, showing the loss of roads and bridges, and extensive riverbank erosion that has triggered house collapses:

 Meanwhile, across a large swathe of northern and western India rainfall activity in this monsoon remains low:

And typhoon activity in the Pacific is also unusually quiet - indeed global tropical cyclone activity is at its lowest level for the 30 year period for which reliable measurements are available (see image below from Ryan Maue's excellent site).  ACE is a measure of the energy expended by tropical cyclones.  Given that tropical cyclones are a major trigger of landslides, this is keeping the overall occurrence lower than might have been expected. 
 

The slow-burn rainfall disaster in China, whilst the monsoon in South Asia is weak so far

Although it has received scant attention in the west, China is currently undergoing a classic slow-burn weather disaster associated with exceptional rainfall.  The scale is remarkable - Xinhua reports that since 1st July, 273 people have been killed and 218 people are missing, 3 million people have been displaced from their homes and 58 million people have been affected directly.  Economic losses are estimated to be about US$8.6 billion.  This means that over 1,000 people have been lost to floods and landslides so far this year in China.  As of 15th July (i.e. before these most recent storms), economic losses from rainfall-induced disasters in China this year were estimated to be US$17.6 billion. A week earlier than that, on 8th July, the Ministry of Civil Affairs estimated that natural disasters (now including earthquakes) in China  in the first six months of 2010 have left about 4,000 people dead or missing, and caused about US$31.2 billion in direct economic losses.

Unfortunately the situation could deteriorate considerably in the next 24 hours as Typhoon Chantu is just making landfall in southwest China, as this Tropical Storm Risk map shows:

Meanwhile, the monsoon in S. Asia is off to a slow start.  Although the weather system progressed northwards more quickly than is normal, the rainfall totals to date are some way short of normal:

Whilst this is good news from a hazards perspective, S. Asia is dependent upon monsoon rainfall.  Very anomalously low years cause water supply issues.  However, there are now signs that atmospheric conditions that generate monsoon rainfall are developing, so expect to see this situation change soon.  The result will inevitably be an increase in the number of landslides in S. Asia, in line with the normal seasonal pattern.

Framlingham College Presentation on the typhoon Morakot disaster in Taiwan

Last night I gave a public lecture on the Typhoon Morakot disaster in Taiwan. The talk may be viewed and downloaded here:

10_02 Framlingham comp

See more presentations by Dr_Dave | Upload your own PowerPoint presentations

The causes of the Shiaolin landslide disaster in Taiwan

The Shiaolin landslide disaster in Taiwan, which occurred during typhoon Morakot last August, has been the source of huge controversy. To recap, the landslide, which occurred during an exceptional rainfall event, wiped out Shiaolin village, killing about 500 people. The controversy centred on two key aspects - first, the perceived very slow response of the government to the disaster and second the possibility that tunneling associated with the Zengwen Reservoir project may have been a contributing factor to the slope failure. In response the Executive Yuan of Taiwan commissioned an investigation from the Public Construction Commission, which released its final report yesterday.

The report is of course in Mandarin, but very helpfully there is a powerpoint file available that summarises the findings and provides some illustrations of the key issues. This powerpoint file is available here (warning it is a large file in Powerpoint in pptx format):

http://www.pcc.gov.tw/pccap2/FMGRfrontendDownloadQuoteFile.do?fileCode=F2010020012

The report is available here:

http://www.pcc.gov.tw/pccap2/FMGRfronten/DownloadQuoteFile.do?fileCode=F2010020011

The key finding of the report is in my view correct - this is that the tunnel project was not the cause of this landslide disaster - they factor was the exceptional rainfall experienced in this event. The powerpoint file provides a dramatic illustrations of the magnitude and intensity of this rainfall:


Click on the image for a better view in a new window. The map on the left is the recorded rainfall for the storm, the table on the right is the total rainfall for a number of stations in the worse affected area. Note that the precipitation totals are extreme in every sense of the word - c.2500 mm (2.5 metres of rain) is the equivalent of three years total rainfall for the temperate area in which I live. This is the largest rainfall event ever recorded in Taiwan, and probably the most intense rainfall event worldwide for half a century.

The report shows that disturbance associated with the tunnel is not sufficient to be a factor in the landslide - a conclusion that I support. Instead, they show that the slope underwent a dip slope failure that led to a massive rockslide that destroyed the village. The report suggests that the landslide had a maximum depth of about 86 m and a volume of 2.5 million cubic metres. From what I can tell the slide itself was a wedge failure with a dip-slope defining part of the wedge.

There is only one aspect of the report that continues to cause concern. This is the interpretation of the mechanism of failure. This slide shows a long profile of the landslide site, which shows bedding parallel to the slope right down to the river (section A-A'):

This just doesn't seem to accord with what Chris Massey and I observed on site at the toe of the slope:

This picture is taken from the north end of the toe of the slope looking upstream - note the bedding on the far side of the valley - this is near vertical.

This picture was taken at the site of the old bridge abutment at the toe of the slide (the concrete in the middle of the image is this abutment I think) - again, note the very steeply dipping rocks at this point.

The final point to make is that the Shiaolin landslide was of course not the only failure to occur in the area during Morakot. Mapping of this region has identified 880 landslides covering an area of 2058 hectares (20.88 square kilometres).

There can be no doubt that Morakot was an extraordinary event.

The ten most important "natural" disasters of the last ten years

As we are now at the end of the "noughties" I thought that it would be interesting to compile a list of the ten most important "natural" (i.e. geophysical and hydro-meteorological) disasters of the decade. This is not intended to be a list of the ten most damaging or with the highest number of fatalities, but more to reflect events that changed the way that we think or act about disasters. As such the list is compiled very much from my perspective - I would welcome comments on the ones that I have missed. The statistical data are from the CRED EM-DAT database.

So here goes, in reverse order:

10. The Gujurat Earthquake, India, 26th May 2001
With 20,000 fatalities, the Bhuj earthquake was a huge event. From a technical perspective the key aspect of this event was that it occurred in an intra-plate area - i.e. not in the immediate vicinity of a major tectonic fault system. Whilst the hazard in such areas has long been recognised, this earthquake served to highlight the need to focus attention on all areas with high seismic hazard, not just those in tectonically-active locations.

9. The Guinsaugon landslide, Philippines, 17th February 2006
The tragedy of the Guinsaugon landslide is that the authorities and local people were aware of the threat posed by the slope, and evacuated the town. However, when the heavy rainfall (brought by a typhoon) stopped, the people returned to their homes and schools, only to be buried by the slide. The impact was dreadful. The event illustrated the need for joined up thinking on hazards and also the need to coordinate rescue operations properly. The difficulties encountered by the rescue teams both in trying to identify where the buried infrastructure actually was, and in keeping themselves safe, served an important lesson.

8. The Bam Earthquake, Iran, 26th December 2003
The Bam earthquake was the first of the two "Boxing Day" disasters of the noughties. The earthquake was a direct hit on the ancient city of Bam, the centre of which collapsed almost completely. The death toll was fearsome (26,796 people), and the earthquake brought into sharp relief the role that poor building construction plays in disaster causation. The rammed earth citadel collapsed whilst adjacent brick buildings designed to withstand shaking were essentially undamaged. The loss of the cultural heritage of this ancient city is an enduring tragedy.

7. The Simeule / Nias earthquake, Indonesia, 28th March 2005
With a death toll of 915, this event may seem at first glance to be too small to justify a place in this list. However, this event confirmed the fears of many seismologists that large earthquakes can weaken unfailed sections of adjacent faults, allowing them to rupture in the aftermath of the big event. The recognition that this was occurring along the Sumatra subduction system led to the conclusion that Indonesia faces a period of elevated seismic activity - as has subsequently proven to be the case. This also served to further raise concern about the other fault that we know behaves in this way - the North Anatolian fault in Turkey.

6. The Kashmir earthquake (Pakistan and India), 8th October 2005
The true toll from the Kashmir earthquake remains unclear - the official total in Pakistan is 73,338, whilst the Red Cross has suggested that a more realistic number may be 100,000. The extraordinary destruction, in particular in the towns of Balakot and Muzaffarabad, was big news for many days. The difficulties of providing assistance to a mountain population as winter approached was perhaps the biggest story. The combined efforts of air forces and NGOs from around the world, working with the Pakistan Army, averted the second potential tragedy and opened new lines of communication in the aftermath of large events.

5. The summer 2003 heatwave in Europe
The exceptional temperatures recorded in Europe in Summer 2003 is estimated to have killed over 60,000 people. The long term impact of this event has been equally profound - subsequent analysis has shown that this event is difficult to explain but for the impacts of anthropogenic climate change - probably for the first time scientists could say with justification that climate change is inducing severe weather events. The realisation that these conditions, or worse, may affect Europe on an annual basis as the climate warms undoubtedly changed the perspective of politicians with regard to the climate change debate.

4. The Wenchuan Earthquake, China, 12th May 2008
The impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the mountains of the Longminshan range was extraordinary. The destruction of the schools in particular will remain in the memory for a long time. In the aftermath of the earthquake the world watched as the government strove to cope with both the disaster itself and the landslide dams that littered the landscape. The successful mitigation of these dams was an extraordinary achievement, but the treatment of the parents of children killed in schools puts the authorities in a different light.

3. Cyclone Nargis, Burma (Myanmar), 2nd May 2008
Cyclone Nargis feels like the big event that everyone has forgotten. At the time it was big news, but it rapidly fell off the TV screens and, given that Burma is a military state, there was little hope of prolonged world attention, especially given the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake just ten days later. However, the extreme death toll (138,366 people) should serve to remind us that Indian Ocean cyclones remain a major threat.

2. Hurricane Katrina, USA, 29th August 2005
The impact of Katrina on New Orleans remains one of the enduring images of the decade. That a major city in a developed country could be so disastrously affected by a hurricane was a shock to many. In many ways the greatest shock was the failure of the US authorities to take action in the aftermath of the event. Around the world government's became aware of the vulnerability of coastal cities to large events.

1. The Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, 26th December 2004
The two obvious aspects of this disaster are of course the huge death-toll (165,708 in Indonesia alone, probably c.250,000 worldwide, according to the EM-DAT database) across a huge swathe of the coast around the Indian Ocean, and the dramatic footage captured by CCTV and personal videos. However, this was a game-changing disaster, causing governments around the world to sit up and take notice of the potential impact of large events.

Postscript
The dreadful impact of the disasters listed above, and many others, should serve to remind us that we have a long way to go to reduce disaster losses. I cannot help but feel that, dreadful though the above list undoubtedly is, we have once again dodged the bullet. None of the above represented a direct hit on a major city in a less developed country. The threat to places such as Kathmandu and Tehran, and many other places, remains unacceptably high - the million fatality natural disaster remains a genuine possibility.

Typhoon Mirinae (Santi)

Click here for the latest update

Once again Luzon in the Philippines is staring down the barrel of a powerful tropical cyclone, Typhoon Mirinae (known locally as Typhoon Santi). The storm is currently forecast to track across the southern part of Luzon on Friday evening:
The 24 hour eTRaP precipitation forecast for the storm suggests that it is, as expected, inducing substantial amounts of precipitation along track:

At the moment the storm is quite fast moving (15 knots) which from a precipitation perspective is probably good news. From a landslide perspective the worry however is that the storm appears likely to induce heavy rainfall in the areas most seriously affected by Typhoons Parma and Ketsana:

Indeed, the similarity between the track of Typhoon Ketsana and the forecast for Typhoon Mirinae is of some concern. Typhoon Ketsana killed at least 460 people.

Just when you thought it was safe to go out in Luzon...

...another potential typhoon appears (Tropical Storm 23):

Unbelievable, although the track error this far out is of course very high.

Typhoon Lupit stalls off the coast of Luzon

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has now stalled off the northern coast off Luzon and is forecast to recurve and to head northwards, whilst weakening as it encounters increasingly cold water over the next few days:

This has been an extremely fortunate outcome, and one that has also exposed the continuing problems with forecasting typhoon tracks. The eTRap forecast for the precipitation over the next 24 hours clearly highlights just how close this storm came to causing substantial rainfall in Luzon:

The threat to Luzon has certainly not gone away completely, but is certainly receding substantially. Luckily, at the moment the storm is also forecast to miss Taiwan as well. Unless there is a dramatic change of direction of the storm this will be my last post on Lupit.

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) continues to confound!

The behaviour of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast, primarily because its movement remains quite slow. The latest JTWC track forecast is still suggesting that the track will pass across the northern part of Luzon:
However, the storm is now moving slowly and is likely to continue to do so, which makes forecasting its track much more difficult. The major concern is that the JTWC forecast above suggests that the storm will track across Luzon very slowly, which is very bad news in terms of landslide and flood generation. However, some forecast models (such as the GFS model) suggest that the slow movement may allow the regional air pattern to change, which could cause the storm to recurve and head to the north, which would spare Luzon. This remains quite unlikely, but would be very fortunate indeed. On the other hand, some other forecasts suggest a more southerly track than the JTWC one.

The storm itself is now quite weak (only a category 2), but may well strengthen a little over the next few hours. This suggests that if the storm does come ashore the major issue will be the rainfall rather than the winds / storm surge. The eTRaP data, which forecasts rainfall for the next 24 hours, indicates the intensity of the rainfall associated with this storm (NB the scale is in inches, 1 inch = 25.4 mm):

The satellite imagery suggests that the outer edge of the storm (i.e. the high level cloud) has just about reached the Luzon coast, although the main part of the storm is still quite some distance away:


If the storm does come ashore then an interesting site to keep an eye on might be that of a professional extreme weather photographer, John Edds, who is out there and is blogging on the preparations that the local people are taking. You can view his report here.

Typhoon Lupit (Typhoon Ramil) continues to threaten Luzon

Latest update here

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has now resumed its westward progress and remains on track to cross the northern part of Luzon in the Philippines:
The typhoon has weakened somewhat over the last few hours, with maximum sustained wind speeds now in the order of 85 knots. This weakening appears to be associated with some drier air that surrounded the typhoon, disrupting its organised circulation. However, there is now some evidence that it is stabilising and the eye is reforming. The typhoon is likely to cross an area of warmer water as it approaches Luzon, meaning that it may re-intensify somewhat:

NOAA eTRaP data provides an estimate of the likely precipitation associated with the storm over the next 24 hours. This is useful as the typhoon approaches land, but for now it provides a helpful indication of the levels of rainfall associated with the storm:
This storm continues to be the source of very serious concern. Based on its current quite low rate of movement (8 knots) the eye is likely to make landfall on Friday, although of course the outer rain bands will start to affect the area some time before that.

Latest update on Typhoon Lupit (Typhoon Ramil) and Hurricane Rick

Latest update here

Unfortunately the news on typhoon Lupit (Ramil in the Philippines) is not getting any better. The storm has now turned towards the west and is picking up speed. It is now moving on a bearing of about 300 degrees at about 9 knots (c.17 kmh). This means that it is forecast to start to make landfall on the northern side of Luzon on Wednesday / Thursday. The current forecasts are that it will weaken slightly over the next few days, but this will still be a very strong storm if it does come ashore on Luzon:

The best hope at the moment is that it takes a more northerly track and shoots through the gap between Taiwan and Luzon. A more northerly track than this could be bad news for Taiwan - this is of course the area that was hit by Morakot (see images here and a review here) in August.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick is now weakening slightly but is heading northwards to make landfall on Baja California, also on Wednesday:
This storm also has the potential to bring very heavy rainfall, in this case to Mexico, with a very real threat of landslides.

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) update

Latest update here

According to the latest track maps, Typhoon Lupit (known locally as Typhoon Ramil in the Philippines) has been effectively stalled out to the east of Luzon for the last couple of days. It may look as if the storm is now heading away from Luzon, but current forecasts are that it will resume its westward movement in the next day or so:
This is a very large and strong storm (current maximum sustained speeds are 175 km per hour, with gusts up to 210 kph). Unfortunately, it is expected to hit Luzon on Wednesday or Thursday if the storm follows the forecast track. Given the impact of the two previous storms, the consequences are potentially grave, especially if it were to track slightly further to the south than the current forecast. Unsurprisingly, there is deep concern about this storm in the Philippines - take a look for example at this article.

Typhoon Parma - rainfall and landslide maps

NASA have recently produced a map of the distribution of rainfall from Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines:

The map has been produced from "the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission". I am not sure how reliable this is, but it is certainly a useful first estimate.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the distribution of fatal landslides with this map. I have used the amazing NDCC daily reports to compile a map of the landslides that killed people. I can only locate the slides to within a couple of kilometres, but for this exercise that is good enough. So here is a Google Earth map of the fatal landslides:

Each dot is a single fatal landslide - click on the image for a better view in a new window. Note the cluster in the centre of the image - this is Baguio City where there were many slides.


Not a bad relationship actually, but far from simple - but then fatal landslides are certainly not simple things.

Comments welcome.

Another threat to the Philippines - Typhoon Lupit

Unfortunately things do not get any easier in the Philippines. Just as the clear-up from Typhoon Parma really gets under way (my tally of the landslide related deaths from this event is currently 346 people), another typhoon has formed. The current track forecasts suggest that there is a reasonable chance that it will pass over the northern part of Luzon once again:

Note that the labels on the track give the date and time - i.e. 21/00Z represents midnight (UT) on 21st, so the storm is some days away. Track forecasts are quite unreliable (that is what the shaded area represents), but the danger here is very real. With the ground being very wet from earlier events, a direct hit from this storm could be very serious. My experience is that late season typhoons (and this is most definitely late in the season) often seem to be quite damaging, although I have no empirical evidence to support that observation.

Typhoon Parma - interesting image

I have today come across this dramatic image of the aftermath of the landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines (source GMA News.TV):

Update: landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines

This is an update on this post.

Information continues to trickle in about the landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (known as Pepeng in the Philippines). The following is a compilation from a variety of sources.

• The confirmed current toll is 193 dead, with 101 injured and 46 people reported missing;
• The landslide in Puguis village in La Trinidad (Benguet) is known to have killed 104 people, with rescue operations continuing;
• The major road network in Benguet remains severely affected, with about 40 landslides blocking passage;
  
• (from here) In Baguio City itself 53 people were killed in landslides into shanty towns. This includes 12 people in a slide at Barangay Crescencia on Thursday; 11 people (and 1 missing) in Barangay Irisan; and eight from a slide in Lower Kitma;
• In Sitio Bulala, Barangay Kayan East in Tadian town, Mountain Province, 38 bodies have been recovered from a large landslide. A further 10 people are reported to be missing;
• In Bunga in Tadian town, a residential house was buried on Thursday afternoon, killing three people.
  

I feel deeply frustrated by this disaster. Most of the fatal landslides occurred on Thursday of last week (8th October). I first posted on the dangers of this typhoon on Thursday 1st October (a week before the disaster!):

"...it is currently forecast to move rather slowly as it crosses Luzon, and then to hang around for a while. Note that forecasts this far in advance are quite uncertain, but if the current forecast track is maintained then things will get very nasty in the northern Philippines, given how wet the ground must be after Typhoon Ketsana."

Then on Friday 2nd October, I wrote:
"The main point of this post is to highlight the continued threat of Typhoon Parma to the northern Philippines. The current track forecast has it making landfall in the next day or so in the northern part of Luzon. The forecasts are still that it will stall as it makes its way across that area - this is typically the scenario that leads to very heavy rainfall and hence many landslides".

Video of the aftermath of landslides triggered by Typhoon Parma in the Philippines

Latest update here.

Youtube has an interesting video of the aftermath of the Philippine landslides triggered by Typhoon Parma (known locally as Pepeng):



If the above does not work you can access it via the following link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuF1KFXBqAs&feature=related

The rising toll from Typhoon Parma in the Philippines

Latest update on the landslides in the Philippines here.

The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Parma continues to rise. Fortunately, according to the track map (from here) the storm has now moved out into the South China Sea and is heading for Hainan Island in China:
In its wake the typhoon has left a train of landslide devastation. Combining reports from inquirer.net and GMANews.tv, the picture appears to be as follows:

Total death toll in the Cordillera region is 214-222 people. A further 53 people are reported to be missing. Most of the deaths are from landslides.

The largest event occurred at Barangay Puguis in La Trinidad town, where 64 people are known to have died and a further 24 are reported to be buried in the debris. At Barangay Abatan in Buguias a further 19 people were killed in a signle landslide.

Reuters have published the following images of the landslides in the Bagui area:


Whilst AP has published this one:


If anyone in the Philippines has any further information I would be really pleased to hear from them.

Latest update here.

Typhoon Parma update, plus landslides in Indonesia, India, Sicily, Samoa, Cambodia and Vietnam

I am struggling to keep up with the natural disasters at the moment. The main point of this post is to highlight the continued threat of Typhoon Parma to the northern Philippines. The current track forecast has it making landfall in the next day or so in the northern part of Luzon. The forecasts are still that it will stall as it makes its way across that area - this is typically the scenario that leads to very heavy rainfall and hence many landslides. Note also that at the moment it is not clear where it will go once it clears the Philippines, but the South China Sea is warm, which could lead to a re-intensification:

Meanwhile the last week has been grim for landslides:

1. The Samoa earthquake and tsunami has received some publicity, but has been overshadowed by events elsewhere. The intensity of the shaking may well have triggered some landslides, and of course there is the possibility that a submarine slide contributed to the tsunami;
2. The Indonesian Earthquakes: there are lots of reports of landslides triggered by the earthquakes. These slides appear to have cost lives directly and also to be hampering the rescue operations due to blocked roads.

3. Typhoon Ketsana: Cambodia and Vietnam were both hit very hard by typhoon Ketsana. Reported death tolls are 99 people in Vietnam and 14 people in Cambodia, adding to the reported 293 fatalities in the Philippines. In each case landslides appear to have been a major factor.

4. Rain in India: 140 people are reported to have been killed in heavy rainfall in the states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. At least some of these are the result of landslides - for example, a single landslide killed eight people in Maharashtra yesterday.

5. Mudslides in Sicily: heavy rainfall in Sicily last night triggered extensive mudslides around Messina killed at least 14 people. Image below from here (not my normal daily read I should quickly add):

I cannot remember a time with so many events occurring simultaneously. Certainly an interesting time as the old curse says.