Typhoon Mirinae (Santi)

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Once again Luzon in the Philippines is staring down the barrel of a powerful tropical cyclone, Typhoon Mirinae (known locally as Typhoon Santi). The storm is currently forecast to track across the southern part of Luzon on Friday evening:
The 24 hour eTRaP precipitation forecast for the storm suggests that it is, as expected, inducing substantial amounts of precipitation along track:

At the moment the storm is quite fast moving (15 knots) which from a precipitation perspective is probably good news. From a landslide perspective the worry however is that the storm appears likely to induce heavy rainfall in the areas most seriously affected by Typhoons Parma and Ketsana:

Indeed, the similarity between the track of Typhoon Ketsana and the forecast for Typhoon Mirinae is of some concern. Typhoon Ketsana killed at least 460 people.

Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) - some interesting images

Thanks to Dr Deirdre McKay from Keele University for highlighting these images to me.

Inan Lanoi has an album of photographs taken in the aftermath of Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines. Whilst perhaps less polished than the images that one gets on news sites, they capture very well the true impact of the landslides. The images can be viewed on Inan's Facebook page here (you need a Facebook account to view this album).

I have taken the liberty to reproduce a couple of images here, primarily because I want to keep this event at the forefront of our minds, given the impending threat from Typhoon Lupit. This is the landslide at Kayan, Tadian, which reportedly killed 35 people:

Typhoon Parma - rainfall and landslide maps

NASA have recently produced a map of the distribution of rainfall from Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines:

The map has been produced from "the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission". I am not sure how reliable this is, but it is certainly a useful first estimate.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the distribution of fatal landslides with this map. I have used the amazing NDCC daily reports to compile a map of the landslides that killed people. I can only locate the slides to within a couple of kilometres, but for this exercise that is good enough. So here is a Google Earth map of the fatal landslides:

Each dot is a single fatal landslide - click on the image for a better view in a new window. Note the cluster in the centre of the image - this is Baguio City where there were many slides.


Not a bad relationship actually, but far from simple - but then fatal landslides are certainly not simple things.

Comments welcome.

Typhoon Parma - interesting image

I have today come across this dramatic image of the aftermath of the landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines (source GMA News.TV):

Update: landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines

This is an update on this post.

Information continues to trickle in about the landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (known as Pepeng in the Philippines). The following is a compilation from a variety of sources.

• The confirmed current toll is 193 dead, with 101 injured and 46 people reported missing;
• The landslide in Puguis village in La Trinidad (Benguet) is known to have killed 104 people, with rescue operations continuing;
• The major road network in Benguet remains severely affected, with about 40 landslides blocking passage;
  
• (from here) In Baguio City itself 53 people were killed in landslides into shanty towns. This includes 12 people in a slide at Barangay Crescencia on Thursday; 11 people (and 1 missing) in Barangay Irisan; and eight from a slide in Lower Kitma;
• In Sitio Bulala, Barangay Kayan East in Tadian town, Mountain Province, 38 bodies have been recovered from a large landslide. A further 10 people are reported to be missing;
• In Bunga in Tadian town, a residential house was buried on Thursday afternoon, killing three people.
  

I feel deeply frustrated by this disaster. Most of the fatal landslides occurred on Thursday of last week (8th October). I first posted on the dangers of this typhoon on Thursday 1st October (a week before the disaster!):

"...it is currently forecast to move rather slowly as it crosses Luzon, and then to hang around for a while. Note that forecasts this far in advance are quite uncertain, but if the current forecast track is maintained then things will get very nasty in the northern Philippines, given how wet the ground must be after Typhoon Ketsana."

Then on Friday 2nd October, I wrote:
"The main point of this post is to highlight the continued threat of Typhoon Parma to the northern Philippines. The current track forecast has it making landfall in the next day or so in the northern part of Luzon. The forecasts are still that it will stall as it makes its way across that area - this is typically the scenario that leads to very heavy rainfall and hence many landslides".

Video of the aftermath of landslides triggered by Typhoon Parma in the Philippines

Latest update here.

Youtube has an interesting video of the aftermath of the Philippine landslides triggered by Typhoon Parma (known locally as Pepeng):



If the above does not work you can access it via the following link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuF1KFXBqAs&feature=related

The rising toll from Typhoon Parma in the Philippines

Latest update on the landslides in the Philippines here.

The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Parma continues to rise. Fortunately, according to the track map (from here) the storm has now moved out into the South China Sea and is heading for Hainan Island in China:
In its wake the typhoon has left a train of landslide devastation. Combining reports from inquirer.net and GMANews.tv, the picture appears to be as follows:

Total death toll in the Cordillera region is 214-222 people. A further 53 people are reported to be missing. Most of the deaths are from landslides.

The largest event occurred at Barangay Puguis in La Trinidad town, where 64 people are known to have died and a further 24 are reported to be buried in the debris. At Barangay Abatan in Buguias a further 19 people were killed in a signle landslide.

Reuters have published the following images of the landslides in the Bagui area:


Whilst AP has published this one:


If anyone in the Philippines has any further information I would be really pleased to hear from them.

Latest update here.

Typhoon Parma - multiple landslide fatalities in the Philippines

Updated: ABS-CBN News are now reporting that "At least 45 bodies have been recovered while dozens more remain missing after a massive landslide buried dozens of houses in La Trinidad, Benguet on Thursday night while tropical depression Pepeng (international codename Parma) was pouring heavy rains over northern Luzon provinces."

At the end of last week I posted regarding my concerns about the impact of Typhoon Parma on the northern part of Luzon, in particular in relation to the likelihood that it might stall, leading to prolonged heavy rain in this area. Unfortunately, these fears came to pass - the typhoon has been sitting over the northern part of Luzon for several days now, and remains located over the same area, as shown by this map (which also shows the forecast track):

The upshot has been that Luzon has received heavy rain for many days, as this 7 day TRMM rainfall map shows:


The impact is all too predictable I am afraid. This morning the Philippines news agencies are reporting over 100 people killed in the affected area. There have been at least two large landslides. GMA News and others are reporting the following:

• In the Puguis village, La Trinidad, 34 houses were buries when "a portion of the mountain collapsed". [Original post: 28] 45 [updated from here] bodies have been recovered, and many more may be missing.
• In Poblacion village, nine people were killed in a landslide
• In Barangay Tabio, Mankayan town, four people were killed when they were buried inside their house by a landslide
• In Tublay town, six people were reported to have been buried in a landslide, including an infant. A worker at the provincial engineering office also killed in a landslide while clearing a road.
• In Bugias town, two people were killed by a landslide.
  

In addition, GMA News note that "Retrieval operations are on going for 150 other Benguet residents believed to have been buried beneath the collapsed soil in the affected areas."

Unfortunately the typhoon track above suggests that this area has still to receive some further very heavy rainfall, so the picture may get considerably worse.