Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) is likely to pass across Luzon in the next 24 hours

The latest track forecasts for Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) suggest that a direct hit on Luzon is now highly likely:
Mirinae is not especially strong in terms of windspeed, but the eTRaP data suggest that rainfall volumes are high (this is the precipitation forecast for the next 24 hours):

The topography of this area is pretty mountainous, and the typhoon will pass close to Manila:

The ground is likely to still be very wet from the two earlier typhoon events, although in these residual soils the drainage rate is probably quite high, so there is probably a higher likelihood of landslides than would normally occur for a typhoon of this size.

Typhoon Mirinae (Santi)

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Once again Luzon in the Philippines is staring down the barrel of a powerful tropical cyclone, Typhoon Mirinae (known locally as Typhoon Santi). The storm is currently forecast to track across the southern part of Luzon on Friday evening:
The 24 hour eTRaP precipitation forecast for the storm suggests that it is, as expected, inducing substantial amounts of precipitation along track:

At the moment the storm is quite fast moving (15 knots) which from a precipitation perspective is probably good news. From a landslide perspective the worry however is that the storm appears likely to induce heavy rainfall in the areas most seriously affected by Typhoons Parma and Ketsana:

Indeed, the similarity between the track of Typhoon Ketsana and the forecast for Typhoon Mirinae is of some concern. Typhoon Ketsana killed at least 460 people.