Typhoon Lupit stalls off the coast of Luzon

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has now stalled off the northern coast off Luzon and is forecast to recurve and to head northwards, whilst weakening as it encounters increasingly cold water over the next few days:

This has been an extremely fortunate outcome, and one that has also exposed the continuing problems with forecasting typhoon tracks. The eTRap forecast for the precipitation over the next 24 hours clearly highlights just how close this storm came to causing substantial rainfall in Luzon:

The threat to Luzon has certainly not gone away completely, but is certainly receding substantially. Luckily, at the moment the storm is also forecast to miss Taiwan as well. Unless there is a dramatic change of direction of the storm this will be my last post on Lupit.

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) continues to confound!

The behaviour of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast, primarily because its movement remains quite slow. The latest JTWC track forecast is still suggesting that the track will pass across the northern part of Luzon:
However, the storm is now moving slowly and is likely to continue to do so, which makes forecasting its track much more difficult. The major concern is that the JTWC forecast above suggests that the storm will track across Luzon very slowly, which is very bad news in terms of landslide and flood generation. However, some forecast models (such as the GFS model) suggest that the slow movement may allow the regional air pattern to change, which could cause the storm to recurve and head to the north, which would spare Luzon. This remains quite unlikely, but would be very fortunate indeed. On the other hand, some other forecasts suggest a more southerly track than the JTWC one.

The storm itself is now quite weak (only a category 2), but may well strengthen a little over the next few hours. This suggests that if the storm does come ashore the major issue will be the rainfall rather than the winds / storm surge. The eTRaP data, which forecasts rainfall for the next 24 hours, indicates the intensity of the rainfall associated with this storm (NB the scale is in inches, 1 inch = 25.4 mm):

The satellite imagery suggests that the outer edge of the storm (i.e. the high level cloud) has just about reached the Luzon coast, although the main part of the storm is still quite some distance away:


If the storm does come ashore then an interesting site to keep an eye on might be that of a professional extreme weather photographer, John Edds, who is out there and is blogging on the preparations that the local people are taking. You can view his report here.

Typhoon Lupit (Typhoon Ramil) continues to threaten Luzon

Latest update here

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has now resumed its westward progress and remains on track to cross the northern part of Luzon in the Philippines:
The typhoon has weakened somewhat over the last few hours, with maximum sustained wind speeds now in the order of 85 knots. This weakening appears to be associated with some drier air that surrounded the typhoon, disrupting its organised circulation. However, there is now some evidence that it is stabilising and the eye is reforming. The typhoon is likely to cross an area of warmer water as it approaches Luzon, meaning that it may re-intensify somewhat:

NOAA eTRaP data provides an estimate of the likely precipitation associated with the storm over the next 24 hours. This is useful as the typhoon approaches land, but for now it provides a helpful indication of the levels of rainfall associated with the storm:
This storm continues to be the source of very serious concern. Based on its current quite low rate of movement (8 knots) the eye is likely to make landfall on Friday, although of course the outer rain bands will start to affect the area some time before that.