Watching the reports of the earthquake disaster in Haiti coming in, I thought it might be useful to share some observations on the reporting of the immediate aftermath of disasters in less developed countries:
1. Everything stops at night. At the time of writing it is still night time on Haiti. In the aftermath of an earthquake electricity and power supplies are wiped out, so for the night time period it appears that the disaster is not as bad as is feared. As the sun comes up so the reports on the true picture start to emerge, and the fatality statistics start to increase rapidly. This increase will continue for several days at least, but may ultimately exceed the final toll;
2. The initial focus is often wrong. In the immediate aftermath of a disaster the initial focus of the media reports is often on the biggest city. This is rarely where the biggest impact has occurred, but it is most accessible so will be the focus of the reports.
3. No news is very, very bad news. The biggest impacts are often in rural areas with the highest levels of shaking. These areas had poor communications to start with, but when an earthquake strikes the roads become blocked, power is lost and there is no telephone service. Therefore, no news comes out for some time after the quake. The picture is actually the opposite of the obvious. If news starts to emerge quickly from those areas with the highest shaking then the picture is not as bad as we feared - at least some communications are open - although it may still be quite grim. If there is almost no news at all from the rural areas for a day or two, then the picture is probably very bad indeed, with almost all of the communications wiped out.
4. The media focus will quickly change to the foreign rescue teams. However, although these efforts are valuable, their overall impact is very small. The real work is actually done by local people - most rescues are made by untrained people in the first 24 hours - this should really be the focus.
At the time of writing the reports seem to be focused on Port-au-Prince, with nothing from the areas to the southwest that have been worse affected. This is not a good sign.
Showing posts with label disaster. Show all posts
Showing posts with label disaster. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Thursday, January 7, 2010
The ten most important "natural" disasters of the last ten years
As we are now at the end of the "noughties" I thought that it would be interesting to compile a list of the ten most important "natural" (i.e. geophysical and hydro-meteorological) disasters of the decade. This is not intended to be a list of the ten most damaging or with the highest number of fatalities, but more to reflect events that changed the way that we think or act about disasters. As such the list is compiled very much from my perspective - I would welcome comments on the ones that I have missed. The statistical data are from the CRED EM-DAT database.
So here goes, in reverse order:
10. The Gujurat Earthquake, India, 26th May 2001
With 20,000 fatalities, the Bhuj earthquake was a huge event. From a technical perspective the key aspect of this event was that it occurred in an intra-plate area - i.e. not in the immediate vicinity of a major tectonic fault system. Whilst the hazard in such areas has long been recognised, this earthquake served to highlight the need to focus attention on all areas with high seismic hazard, not just those in tectonically-active locations.
9. The Guinsaugon landslide, Philippines, 17th February 2006
The tragedy of the Guinsaugon landslide is that the authorities and local people were aware of the threat posed by the slope, and evacuated the town. However, when the heavy rainfall (brought by a typhoon) stopped, the people returned to their homes and schools, only to be buried by the slide. The impact was dreadful. The event illustrated the need for joined up thinking on hazards and also the need to coordinate rescue operations properly. The difficulties encountered by the rescue teams both in trying to identify where the buried infrastructure actually was, and in keeping themselves safe, served an important lesson.
8. The Bam Earthquake, Iran, 26th December 2003
The Bam earthquake was the first of the two "Boxing Day" disasters of the noughties. The earthquake was a direct hit on the ancient city of Bam, the centre of which collapsed almost completely. The death toll was fearsome (26,796 people), and the earthquake brought into sharp relief the role that poor building construction plays in disaster causation. The rammed earth citadel collapsed whilst adjacent brick buildings designed to withstand shaking were essentially undamaged. The loss of the cultural heritage of this ancient city is an enduring tragedy.
7. The Simeule / Nias earthquake, Indonesia, 28th March 2005
With a death toll of 915, this event may seem at first glance to be too small to justify a place in this list. However, this event confirmed the fears of many seismologists that large earthquakes can weaken unfailed sections of adjacent faults, allowing them to rupture in the aftermath of the big event. The recognition that this was occurring along the Sumatra subduction system led to the conclusion that Indonesia faces a period of elevated seismic activity - as has subsequently proven to be the case. This also served to further raise concern about the other fault that we know behaves in this way - the North Anatolian fault in Turkey.
6. The Kashmir earthquake (Pakistan and India), 8th October 2005
The true toll from the Kashmir earthquake remains unclear - the official total in Pakistan is 73,338, whilst the Red Cross has suggested that a more realistic number may be 100,000. The extraordinary destruction, in particular in the towns of Balakot and Muzaffarabad, was big news for many days. The difficulties of providing assistance to a mountain population as winter approached was perhaps the biggest story. The combined efforts of air forces and NGOs from around the world, working with the Pakistan Army, averted the second potential tragedy and opened new lines of communication in the aftermath of large events.
5. The summer 2003 heatwave in Europe
The exceptional temperatures recorded in Europe in Summer 2003 is estimated to have killed over 60,000 people. The long term impact of this event has been equally profound - subsequent analysis has shown that this event is difficult to explain but for the impacts of anthropogenic climate change - probably for the first time scientists could say with justification that climate change is inducing severe weather events. The realisation that these conditions, or worse, may affect Europe on an annual basis as the climate warms undoubtedly changed the perspective of politicians with regard to the climate change debate.
4. The Wenchuan Earthquake, China, 12th May 2008
The impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the mountains of the Longminshan range was extraordinary. The destruction of the schools in particular will remain in the memory for a long time. In the aftermath of the earthquake the world watched as the government strove to cope with both the disaster itself and the landslide dams that littered the landscape. The successful mitigation of these dams was an extraordinary achievement, but the treatment of the parents of children killed in schools puts the authorities in a different light.
3. Cyclone Nargis, Burma (Myanmar), 2nd May 2008
Cyclone Nargis feels like the big event that everyone has forgotten. At the time it was big news, but it rapidly fell off the TV screens and, given that Burma is a military state, there was little hope of prolonged world attention, especially given the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake just ten days later. However, the extreme death toll (138,366 people) should serve to remind us that Indian Ocean cyclones remain a major threat.
2. Hurricane Katrina, USA, 29th August 2005
The impact of Katrina on New Orleans remains one of the enduring images of the decade. That a major city in a developed country could be so disastrously affected by a hurricane was a shock to many. In many ways the greatest shock was the failure of the US authorities to take action in the aftermath of the event. Around the world government's became aware of the vulnerability of coastal cities to large events.
1. The Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, 26th December 2004
The two obvious aspects of this disaster are of course the huge death-toll (165,708 in Indonesia alone, probably c.250,000 worldwide, according to the EM-DAT database) across a huge swathe of the coast around the Indian Ocean, and the dramatic footage captured by CCTV and personal videos. However, this was a game-changing disaster, causing governments around the world to sit up and take notice of the potential impact of large events.
Postscript
The dreadful impact of the disasters listed above, and many others, should serve to remind us that we have a long way to go to reduce disaster losses. I cannot help but feel that, dreadful though the above list undoubtedly is, we have once again dodged the bullet. None of the above represented a direct hit on a major city in a less developed country. The threat to places such as Kathmandu and Tehran, and many other places, remains unacceptably high - the million fatality natural disaster remains a genuine possibility.
So here goes, in reverse order:
10. The Gujurat Earthquake, India, 26th May 2001
With 20,000 fatalities, the Bhuj earthquake was a huge event. From a technical perspective the key aspect of this event was that it occurred in an intra-plate area - i.e. not in the immediate vicinity of a major tectonic fault system. Whilst the hazard in such areas has long been recognised, this earthquake served to highlight the need to focus attention on all areas with high seismic hazard, not just those in tectonically-active locations.
9. The Guinsaugon landslide, Philippines, 17th February 2006
The tragedy of the Guinsaugon landslide is that the authorities and local people were aware of the threat posed by the slope, and evacuated the town. However, when the heavy rainfall (brought by a typhoon) stopped, the people returned to their homes and schools, only to be buried by the slide. The impact was dreadful. The event illustrated the need for joined up thinking on hazards and also the need to coordinate rescue operations properly. The difficulties encountered by the rescue teams both in trying to identify where the buried infrastructure actually was, and in keeping themselves safe, served an important lesson.
8. The Bam Earthquake, Iran, 26th December 2003
The Bam earthquake was the first of the two "Boxing Day" disasters of the noughties. The earthquake was a direct hit on the ancient city of Bam, the centre of which collapsed almost completely. The death toll was fearsome (26,796 people), and the earthquake brought into sharp relief the role that poor building construction plays in disaster causation. The rammed earth citadel collapsed whilst adjacent brick buildings designed to withstand shaking were essentially undamaged. The loss of the cultural heritage of this ancient city is an enduring tragedy.
7. The Simeule / Nias earthquake, Indonesia, 28th March 2005
With a death toll of 915, this event may seem at first glance to be too small to justify a place in this list. However, this event confirmed the fears of many seismologists that large earthquakes can weaken unfailed sections of adjacent faults, allowing them to rupture in the aftermath of the big event. The recognition that this was occurring along the Sumatra subduction system led to the conclusion that Indonesia faces a period of elevated seismic activity - as has subsequently proven to be the case. This also served to further raise concern about the other fault that we know behaves in this way - the North Anatolian fault in Turkey.
6. The Kashmir earthquake (Pakistan and India), 8th October 2005
The true toll from the Kashmir earthquake remains unclear - the official total in Pakistan is 73,338, whilst the Red Cross has suggested that a more realistic number may be 100,000. The extraordinary destruction, in particular in the towns of Balakot and Muzaffarabad, was big news for many days. The difficulties of providing assistance to a mountain population as winter approached was perhaps the biggest story. The combined efforts of air forces and NGOs from around the world, working with the Pakistan Army, averted the second potential tragedy and opened new lines of communication in the aftermath of large events.
5. The summer 2003 heatwave in Europe
The exceptional temperatures recorded in Europe in Summer 2003 is estimated to have killed over 60,000 people. The long term impact of this event has been equally profound - subsequent analysis has shown that this event is difficult to explain but for the impacts of anthropogenic climate change - probably for the first time scientists could say with justification that climate change is inducing severe weather events. The realisation that these conditions, or worse, may affect Europe on an annual basis as the climate warms undoubtedly changed the perspective of politicians with regard to the climate change debate.
4. The Wenchuan Earthquake, China, 12th May 2008
The impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the mountains of the Longminshan range was extraordinary. The destruction of the schools in particular will remain in the memory for a long time. In the aftermath of the earthquake the world watched as the government strove to cope with both the disaster itself and the landslide dams that littered the landscape. The successful mitigation of these dams was an extraordinary achievement, but the treatment of the parents of children killed in schools puts the authorities in a different light.
3. Cyclone Nargis, Burma (Myanmar), 2nd May 2008
Cyclone Nargis feels like the big event that everyone has forgotten. At the time it was big news, but it rapidly fell off the TV screens and, given that Burma is a military state, there was little hope of prolonged world attention, especially given the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake just ten days later. However, the extreme death toll (138,366 people) should serve to remind us that Indian Ocean cyclones remain a major threat.
2. Hurricane Katrina, USA, 29th August 2005
The impact of Katrina on New Orleans remains one of the enduring images of the decade. That a major city in a developed country could be so disastrously affected by a hurricane was a shock to many. In many ways the greatest shock was the failure of the US authorities to take action in the aftermath of the event. Around the world government's became aware of the vulnerability of coastal cities to large events.
1. The Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, 26th December 2004
The two obvious aspects of this disaster are of course the huge death-toll (165,708 in Indonesia alone, probably c.250,000 worldwide, according to the EM-DAT database) across a huge swathe of the coast around the Indian Ocean, and the dramatic footage captured by CCTV and personal videos. However, this was a game-changing disaster, causing governments around the world to sit up and take notice of the potential impact of large events.
Postscript
The dreadful impact of the disasters listed above, and many others, should serve to remind us that we have a long way to go to reduce disaster losses. I cannot help but feel that, dreadful though the above list undoubtedly is, we have once again dodged the bullet. None of the above represented a direct hit on a major city in a less developed country. The threat to places such as Kathmandu and Tehran, and many other places, remains unacceptably high - the million fatality natural disaster remains a genuine possibility.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Munich Re's list of the largest disasters of 2009
The reinsurance giant Munich Re releases annual statistics on the losses from natural catastrophes each year. They released the data for 2009 yesterday, presumably banking on the balance of probabilities that there would be no more major events in the three days left of the year. The release is available here:
http://www.munichre.com/en/press/press_releases/2009/2009_12_29_press_release.aspx
Overall results
The news for 2009 is good, with no disasters causing mass (i.e. >10,000) fatalities. There list of the top ten events in terms of fatalities is as follows (NB using the logical European style date format of dd.mm.yyyy):
Geographical distribution
The geographical spread of these larger events is quite wide, including SE Asia, E. Asia, S. Asia, Africa, Europe and Central America. However, probably the most interesting aspect of this entire release is a map of showing the location of all the natural catastrophes that have occurred through the year:
There are several things to note here. First, you may well have spotted that the highest density of catastrophes appears to have occurred in the United States, Europe and China. This of course reflects the vulnerability of countries with large asset values to geophysical and meteorological processes. Second, the distribution of the event types is quite varied. The climatological events are mostly concentrated in the USA and Australia; Europe and N. America is mostly affected by storms, whilst in Asia the events are primarily floods. Africa probably has far fewer catastrophes than most people would expect.
Economic Losses
Economic losses were also lower than in previous years at $50 billion, compared with $200 billion in 2008. The largest loss-inducing event was a winter storm that affected N. Spain and France in late January, inducing losses of $5.1 billion. The USA was affected by four of the ten events that caused the highest costs in terms of losses.
Climate Change
The effects of climate change on disaster losses is very complex issue. I am increasingly persuaded by the argument that there is now a strong climate change signal in the loss data, primarily due to increased precipitation intensities and increased intensities of the largest tropical cyclones, both of which are supported by strong scientific evidence that has been subjected to peer review. Interestingly, Munich Re are also pretty clear on this point:
'Torsten Jeworrek, Munich Re Board member responsible for global reinsurance business, drew attention to the marked increase in major weather-related natural catastrophes worldwide since 1950, the number now having more or less tripled. Economic losses from weather-related natural catastrophes in the period since 1980 totalled approximately US$ 1,600 bn (in original values). "Climate change probably already accounts for a significant share. In the light of these facts, it is very disappointing that no breakthrough was achieved at the Copenhagen climate summit in December 2009. At Munich Re, we look closely at a multitude of risks and how best to handle them. Risks that change in the course of time are especially hazardous. Climate change is just such a risk of change."
Losses caused by climate change will continue to increase in the future. Jeworrek: "We need as soon as possible an agreement that significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions because the climate reacts slowly and what we fail to do now will have a bearing for decades to come."'
In the next few days I will review landslide events both for 2009 and for the "noughties", and also the major, game-changing disasters of the last decade.
http://www.munichre.com/en/press/press_releases/2009/2009_12_29_press_release.aspx
Overall results
The news for 2009 is good, with no disasters causing mass (i.e. >10,000) fatalities. There list of the top ten events in terms of fatalities is as follows (NB using the logical European style date format of dd.mm.yyyy):
- 30.09/1.10.2009: Indonesia: Earthquakes, 1,195 deaths
- 26-30.09.2009: South East Asia, East Asia: Typhoon Ketsana, 694 deaths
- 07-10.08.2009: China, Philippines, Taiwan: Typhoon Morakot, 614 deaths
- 03-14.10.2009: South East Asia, East Asia: Typhoon Parma, 469 deaths
- 25-27.05.2009: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India: Cyclone Aila, 320 deaths
- 29.09.-15.10.2009: India: Floods, 300 deaths
- 06.04.2009: Italy: Earthquakes, 295 deaths
- 21.08-15.09.2009: India: Floods, 223 deaths
- Aug-Sep 2009: West Africa, Central Africa: Floods, 215 deaths
- 04-13.11.2009 El Salvador, Nicaragua, Mexico, USA: Hurricane Ida, 204 deaths
Geographical distribution
The geographical spread of these larger events is quite wide, including SE Asia, E. Asia, S. Asia, Africa, Europe and Central America. However, probably the most interesting aspect of this entire release is a map of showing the location of all the natural catastrophes that have occurred through the year:
There are several things to note here. First, you may well have spotted that the highest density of catastrophes appears to have occurred in the United States, Europe and China. This of course reflects the vulnerability of countries with large asset values to geophysical and meteorological processes. Second, the distribution of the event types is quite varied. The climatological events are mostly concentrated in the USA and Australia; Europe and N. America is mostly affected by storms, whilst in Asia the events are primarily floods. Africa probably has far fewer catastrophes than most people would expect.Economic Losses
Economic losses were also lower than in previous years at $50 billion, compared with $200 billion in 2008. The largest loss-inducing event was a winter storm that affected N. Spain and France in late January, inducing losses of $5.1 billion. The USA was affected by four of the ten events that caused the highest costs in terms of losses.
Climate Change
The effects of climate change on disaster losses is very complex issue. I am increasingly persuaded by the argument that there is now a strong climate change signal in the loss data, primarily due to increased precipitation intensities and increased intensities of the largest tropical cyclones, both of which are supported by strong scientific evidence that has been subjected to peer review. Interestingly, Munich Re are also pretty clear on this point:
'Torsten Jeworrek, Munich Re Board member responsible for global reinsurance business, drew attention to the marked increase in major weather-related natural catastrophes worldwide since 1950, the number now having more or less tripled. Economic losses from weather-related natural catastrophes in the period since 1980 totalled approximately US$ 1,600 bn (in original values). "Climate change probably already accounts for a significant share. In the light of these facts, it is very disappointing that no breakthrough was achieved at the Copenhagen climate summit in December 2009. At Munich Re, we look closely at a multitude of risks and how best to handle them. Risks that change in the course of time are especially hazardous. Climate change is just such a risk of change."
Losses caused by climate change will continue to increase in the future. Jeworrek: "We need as soon as possible an agreement that significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions because the climate reacts slowly and what we fail to do now will have a bearing for decades to come."'
In the next few days I will review landslide events both for 2009 and for the "noughties", and also the major, game-changing disasters of the last decade.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Ten years ago today - the Vargas landslide disaster
Today is the tenth anniversary of probably the greatest landslide disaster in living memory - the 1999 Vargas landslide catastrophe in Venezuela. On 14th-16th December 1999 a coastal storm in Vargas triggered multiple debris flows that swept onto the densely populated river deltas below. It is estimated that 30,000 people died.
The USGS summary of the event, which remains the best starting place to understand the disaster, is here, which is the source of both photos.
Note the size of the boulder wedged into the side of this building.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Presentation on the Wenchuan (Sichuan) earthquake
Tomorrow (Friday) I am giving a talk at Hazards Day in Manchester for AS/A2 students (year 12 and Year 13 in the UK system). The topic is the hazards associated with the Wenchuan (Sichuan) Earthquake in China. I have uploaded the file below:
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by Dr_Dave
This talk will be repeated at an event in London on Thursday 4th December.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by Dr_Dave
This talk will be repeated at an event in London on Thursday 4th December.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Landslides from the 12th May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake
12th May @ 07:27 UT: News reports this morning are suggesting that there has been a large, shallow earthquake in Sichuan Province, China. Initial estimates from the USGS are that this was a M = 7.5 (NB this has now been corrected to MW=7.9) event located at just 10 km, although clearly this will need updating. If so, it is reasonable to assume that this earthquake will have triggered large numbers of landslides as this is a very landslide-prone area. The Google Earth image below shows the earthquake affected region with the initial epicentre marked. The landscape is highly mountainous.
Fig. 1: Google Earth image of the earthquake-affected area showing the location of the epicentre. If the earthquake is shallow and large, as initial indications suggest, then the number of landslides triggered in this region is likely to be very large.
The image in Fig. 2 shows the population density of China, based upon the GPW dataset available here. The black circle indicates the approximate location of the earthquake. It appears that this is a quite densely inhabited area. If the initial reports on this earthquake are correct then its impact could be fearsome.
Fig. 1: Google Earth image of the earthquake-affected area showing the location of the epicentre. If the earthquake is shallow and large, as initial indications suggest, then the number of landslides triggered in this region is likely to be very large.The image in Fig. 2 shows the population density of China, based upon the GPW dataset available here. The black circle indicates the approximate location of the earthquake. It appears that this is a quite densely inhabited area. If the initial reports on this earthquake are correct then its impact could be fearsome.
Fig. 2: GPW map of the population density of China. The black circle indicates the area affected by the earthquake. The population density is clearly high in this region
Update 1 08:06: Inevitably there is not much news as yet, but the reports are now confirming that the magnitude is about M = 7.5. For info, the map below (Fig 3) shows the fatal landslides that we recorded in 2007 in China and its environs (Note not the landslides from this earthquake). I post this map to show how Chinese landslides are focused on the area affected by this earthquake, which suggests that landslides will have been a significant impact this time as well.
Fig. 3: Map of fatal landslides recorded in 2007 in China. Note the concentration of landslides in the epicentral zone of this earthquake, suggesting that many landslides will have been triggered by this event.
Fig. 3: Map of fatal landslides recorded in 2007 in China. Note the concentration of landslides in the epicentral zone of this earthquake, suggesting that many landslides will have been triggered by this event.Update 2 11:40: It is now becoming apparent that this is a very substantial event, with large numbers of fatalities. Given the size (MW=7.8) and depth (10 km), the number of landslides is likely to be large. For info, the area affected by landslides can be estimated using the classic graphs compiled by Dave Keefer back in the 1980's. Figure 4 (taken from my lecture notes) shows the empirical relationship between earthquake magnitude and area affected by landslides. Given the mountainous terrain and the sensitivity of the environment to landslides, plus the shallowness of the source, it is likely that this will be at the upper boundary of the curve - i.e. that the area affected will exceed 50,000 square kilometres.
Fig. 4: Keefer (1984) graph of the relationship between earthquake magnitude and area affected by landslides. The graph indicates the likely area affected by landslides in this earthquake.
The graph in Fig.5, also from Keefer (1984), indicates how far from the epicentral zone landslides are likely to occur. For an earthquake of this magnitude this can be several hundreds of kilometres.
Fig. 5: Keefer (1984) graph of the relationship between earthquake magnitude and maximum distance to landslides that it triggered. The graph indicates that some landslides may have occurred over 200 km from the epicentre
Finally, the photograph in Fig. 6 shows landslides triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan, which is an area of similar topography and level of development. The impact of these landslides was catastrophic. Note that the response should consider two elements:
1. Substantial numbers of people may have been buried in the landslides;
2. The landslides will impose a substantial constraint on the delivery of aid as they will have seriously damaged the transport infrastructure.
The fact that it is raining in the earthquake affected area makes this problem worse, especially as the wet season is only weeks away. This means that there will be a need to mobilise helicopters into the affected area as soon as possible.
There are more images of landslides associated with the Kashmir earthquake available here and here.
Update 3 20:10: It is now becoming apparent that landslides are indeed a major issue in the earthquake affected areas. For example, Xinhua is reporting that:
"Monday's strong earthquake in southwest China's Sichuan Province have caused multiple landslides and collapses along railway lines near the provincial capital Chengdu, leaving 180 trains stranded on the rails. Thirty-one passenger and 149 cargo trains were stranded on the Baoji-Chengdu line, the Chengdu-Kunming line, the Chengdu-Chongqing line and their branch lines linking Chengdu with the rest of the country. At least 15 cases of landslides and collapses had so far been reported along rail tracks, with 34 railway stations on the Baoji-Chengdu Railway losing power supplies due to the earthquake, Wang Yongping, spokesman of the Ministry of Railways said Monday night."
Fig. 4: Keefer (1984) graph of the relationship between earthquake magnitude and area affected by landslides. The graph indicates the likely area affected by landslides in this earthquake.The graph in Fig.5, also from Keefer (1984), indicates how far from the epicentral zone landslides are likely to occur. For an earthquake of this magnitude this can be several hundreds of kilometres.
Fig. 5: Keefer (1984) graph of the relationship between earthquake magnitude and maximum distance to landslides that it triggered. The graph indicates that some landslides may have occurred over 200 km from the epicentreFinally, the photograph in Fig. 6 shows landslides triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan, which is an area of similar topography and level of development. The impact of these landslides was catastrophic. Note that the response should consider two elements:
1. Substantial numbers of people may have been buried in the landslides;
2. The landslides will impose a substantial constraint on the delivery of aid as they will have seriously damaged the transport infrastructure.
The fact that it is raining in the earthquake affected area makes this problem worse, especially as the wet season is only weeks away. This means that there will be a need to mobilise helicopters into the affected area as soon as possible.
There are more images of landslides associated with the Kashmir earthquake available here and here.
Fig. 6: Landslides triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. A similar level of landslides is likely in this earthquake.
Update 3 20:10: It is now becoming apparent that landslides are indeed a major issue in the earthquake affected areas. For example, Xinhua is reporting that:
"Monday's strong earthquake in southwest China's Sichuan Province have caused multiple landslides and collapses along railway lines near the provincial capital Chengdu, leaving 180 trains stranded on the rails. Thirty-one passenger and 149 cargo trains were stranded on the Baoji-Chengdu line, the Chengdu-Kunming line, the Chengdu-Chongqing line and their branch lines linking Chengdu with the rest of the country. At least 15 cases of landslides and collapses had so far been reported along rail tracks, with 34 railway stations on the Baoji-Chengdu Railway losing power supplies due to the earthquake, Wang Yongping, spokesman of the Ministry of Railways said Monday night."
I suspect that we have not seen any indication yet of the level of destruction in the upland areas around the epicentre, where the landslides are likely to have been triggered. Expect the death toll to increase significantly as information from these regions emerges.
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